Time for another covid check-in.
Daily case rates are spiking, and not just in the US. Today, the EU surpassed our daily new case rate. At the current rate of increase, active caseloads both here and abroad will have exceeded all previous records. We’re in for a hard winter. (https://www.nytimes.com/…/coronavirus-cases-us-surge.html)
THE BAD NEWS: we have a long road ahead of us.
– Reinfection is possible, although seemingly unlikely. We know there is some immunity, but reinfection has been documented among individuals with healthy immune systems. There’s still little information on how long post infection immunity/resistance may last. ANTIBODIES ARE NOT A VACCINE.
– There are consistent reports of lasting side-effects – most commonly mental confusion and physical fatigue. There appear to be significant increases in the risk of stroke or other heart disease during and after infection. (https://www.sciencemag.org/…/brain-fog-heart-damage…)
– The CDC and WHO both appear to be suffering from heavy political influence, which makes it less likely that we’re going to get a coordinated governmental response and makes it harder to find trustworthy data. (https://www.propublica.org/art…/inside-the-fall-of-the-cdc)
– Vaccines are coming, but as of right now it looks like they will be expensive and limited in quantity. There are insane logistical challenges to distributing these. (https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=byW1GExQB84)
THE GOOD NEWS: we are not powerless.
– Masks work. They work so good. There are so many case studies where every unmasked person in a room was infected, while the masked people were not. Wear a mask. (https://www.bloomberg.com/…/this-starbucks-in-south…)
– Outdoors is safe. Period. The only caveat here is AIRFLOW – if fresh air can’t easily move through the space, then it’s less safe and you better wear a mask.
– There are 2 ways to make indoors safer: open windows and air filtration. Open windows are hard to do in the winter, but for short visits or higher risk scenarios, it’s an option. Common air filters are cheap and effective. (https://www.theatlantic.com/…/why-arent-we…/614737)
– There’s a magic number for time spent indoors: 15 minutes. There are few known superspreader events associated with sub-15 minutes spent indoors. By adding masks, distancing, air filters or open windows, and low exertion, then significantly more time can be safely spent indoors. (https://www.npr.org/…/coronavirus-faq-whats-the-deal…)
– Surfaces aren’t the main concern. Keep washing your hands of course, but you don’t need to be sanitizing every five minutes. (https://www.theatlantic.com/…/scourge-hygiene…/614599/)
– Kids seem to be mostly unaffected and aren’t superspreaders. This is especially true for K-6. The main concern is protecting staff. (https://www.theatlantic.com/…/schools-arent…/616669/)
– Fatality rates are dropping and hospital stays are shortening. Generally speaking, doctors know how to treat this.
Get your flu shot, please.